Does the Belarusian opposition need a generational change?

In 2008, the author of this article carried out a small research project aimed at determining the age bracket of the leadership strata in the three most influential Belarusian political parties – the Belarusian National Front Party (BNF), United Civic Party (AGP) and Belarusian Communist Party (PKB) ( the current “Just World” party). An analysis of the age bracket of the parties’ leadership was made including the leader, his deputies and leaders of regional party organisations, as well as the age of each party’s management members (PBFN Sojm, AGP Political Council and PKB Central Committee). The choice of the concrete parties was made taking into account the mass character of the organisation and its influence in the democratic camp as well as equableness of representation on the political scene – from the right to the left.

Research results indicate that the age of the party elite is rather advanced and is growing together with the relocation from the right side of the political scene to the left. The Belarusian Social-Democratic Party (Assembly), in which the average age of leaders is 53.3 years, fits the scheme excellently. This fact may be a proof for the lack of popularity of left-wing ideas among youth and of greater intra-party democracy of the centre-right-wing parties admitting younger politicians to their leading organs as compared with the left wing parties.

In the leaderships of all political parties under discussion, the 35-45 age group constitutes only an insignificant percentage. This fact is a proof for the lack of continuity in party traditions because the exceptionally important age category composed of the most self-contained, professional and goal-oriented people at the peak of their creative possibilities is being “washed away”. After completing the in-party socialisation “course” and reaching defined positions, party youth resigns from political activity to fulfil itself in other spheres of life. The reason for this phenomenon may be  that there are no visible perspectives of coming to power at home, thus the youth views political activity as useless and sees no possibility for self-fulfilment within the party for various reasons (conservatism of the leadership, lack of acceptance for the tactics and methods of operation, etc.). The reason may also be the change of priorities in life; fear of repressions; lack of effective youth-oriented policy in the earlier stage of the party’s development, which has led to a reduction in the number of middle-age party members. Such a situation is observable in practically all political parties in Belarus.

The complete analysis can be downloaded in pdf in English, Polish and Russian.