US elections and European cohesion: Scenario implications for Ukraine and Transatlantic security
Full paper.
Over the last three years, the transatlantic alliance has demonstrated a largely remarkable unity in its support for Ukraine. Though the support has often been less ambitious and slower than Kyiv has needed, it has at least enabled Ukraine’s continued resistance against Russian aggression. As the war is soon to enter its fourth year, however, support is eroding. And the future of US policy is particularly uncertain; the fate of Ukraine’s battlefield will also be decided at the ballot box.
Given this context, this paper explores how the European Union and its Member States could adjust their Ukraine and NATO policies, depending on the outcome of the US election. We plot out potential Harris and Trump administration policies on key questions related to support for Ukraine and NATO, as well as possible European responses and potential outcomes along the variables of unity and decisiveness.
Check out the related e-paper US elections and European cohesion: Scenarios for green transitions and Transatlantic climate action, by Rachel Tausendfreund , Mareike Moraal and Loyle Campbell.
Product details
Table of contents
Introduction 3
1. US support for Ukraine 5
1.1. Harris: strong support with limitations 5
1.2. Trump 2.0: Ukraine and Europe on their own 9
2. Push for negotiations 13
2.1. Harris: a coordinated path toward a ceasefire 13
2.2. Trump 2.0: peace between Trump and Putin 15
3. NATO 20
3.1. President Harris: committed to NATO and better burden sharing 20
3.2. President Trump 2.0: toward a ‹dormant› NATO 23
4. Conclusion 27
The Authors 28