transatlantic relations

Trump is back. And so is his erratic shock and awe style of politics. One day he announces tariffs on Mexico and Canada, the day after he puts them on hold. Who knows what he’ll do next. Europe cannot afford to be paralysed by panic, divided by discord or swept up in performative outrage. Instead of being shocked and awed, the EU must stay calm, adapt and – most importantly – act.

On the campaign trail in 2024 and since the November election, former president Donald Trump has not let up in denying the tie between fossil-fuel use and global warming. His supporters include the world’s largest petroleum companies and they are expecting to be paid back. But it won’t happen on ‘day one,’ as he claims. 

The victory of Donald Trump in the 2024 US elections will undoubtedly have consequences in transatlantic relations, from foreign and security policy to green transition and competitiveness. We asked 3 questions on the consequences of Trump 2.0 for Europe to German Green MEP Sergey Lagodinsky, who is a member of the EP Delegation for relations with the United States.

As American voters have become more firmly entrenched in their party affiliations, fewer and fewer states are in contention and the margins of victory are increasingly slim. This year, polls suggest that in the handful of swing states that will determine the race, the winner could be decided by a razor-thin margin. Votes for third party candidates could be enough to tip the election – most likely, in favor of Donald Trump. 

No consistent picture has emerged yet as to how Kamala Harris would shape her foreign policy if she ends up being the next US president. Her time as Vice President gives at least some hints on how she might deal with China, the war in Ukraine, and policy in the Middle East

A Trump presidency would probably force the UK and EU to intensify their cooperation on security and defence. Fortunately, says Gesine Weber, this relationship was relatively less affected by Brexit. It would also push Europeans to have some difficult conversations about building on their own nuclear deterrent.

Security policy has always been a very high priority in Poland, which results from the country`s difficult past and the latent threat posed by Russia. The Russian invasion of Ukraine reaffirmed Poland`s commitment to its security policy and prompted more investment in defence. The country has now become an important player on NATO`s eastern flank. Joanna Maria Stolarek talks about this with Justyna Gotkowska, a security expert and deputy director of the think tank The Centre for Eastern Studies.

The pandemic-driven boost of digital innovation holds opportunities, but it needs a sound political framework. From countering disinformation to preventing algorithmic discrimination, the U.S. and the EU need to work together to set the rules for our digital economies and societies.