Europe

From Germany’s perspective, Sweden and Finland’s NATO accession strengthens security and stability in the Baltic Sea region in at least three ways. Each point is ultimately a function of how the two new members bolster NATO’s strategic posture in the region and strengthen the transatlantic alliance at large.

For Poland, the Baltic Sea region has become over the last few years an area of growing relevance. Once primarily viewed as a Central European country, Poland is now increasingly seen as part of the Baltic or Northern region. 

After Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Denmark needed to completely shift its security paradigm. Before the invasion, the Danish defence budget amounted to 1.1 per cent of its GDP. It was only in 2023 when the main political parties agreed to reach a minimum target value of two per cent by 2030. 

The Baltic region is now supported by two strategic pillars: one in the North and one in Warsaw. In these turbulent times, Riga finds reassurance in knowing that if Latvia ever needs protection, its geographically closest allies are now treaty-bound to come to its aid.

The Baltic Sea is now almost entirely a “NATO lake”. Apart from Russia's Kaliningrad Oblast and a small coastal strip around St Petersburg, virtually every inch of its shoreline belongs to the Alliance. This is not just a map change; it is a game-changer for daily life and strategic thinking.

Our geopolitical imagination, which until recently was stretched along the East-West axis, has now gained a new dimension – the North. This new perception is becoming the impetus for economic as well as demographic changes that are taking place along the Polish coast.

The steps taken by both Estonia and Latvia demonstrate a strong commitment not only to implementing comprehensive defence, but also embedding robust gender equality policies as an essential component for their armed forces. While notable progress has been made, especially in Latvia, where female participation rates are among the highest in NATO, persistent structural gaps remain, particularly in leadership representation, gender-sensitive planning, and strategic vision.

Motivation remains high in Latvia to continue efforts to aid Ukraine, with the country’s small size encouraging specialization. This is best seen in the recently announced Drone Coalition, which will see Riga lead allied efforts to deliver much-needed unmanned systems to Kyiv. 

Riga has found itself at the centre of questions concerning NATO defence for many years. However, in recent years, these issues have increasingly moved beyond the abstract. Latvia must now prepare itself for a potential confrontation with Russian aggression while also ensuring the effectiveness of long-term alliance commitments.