Power struggle in Warsaw – Poland faces second decisive election

Once again, everything is at stake in Poland. Following the change of government in October 2023, which was strongly supported by women and young people, key reforms have so far failed to materialise – partly due to the president's obstructionist stance. In Poland, the head of state is directly elected and has extensive powers: he is commander-in-chief of the armed forces, determines foreign policy, has a right of veto and signs laws – or chooses not to.

Incumbent Andrzej Duda, who is close to the former ruling party, the national-conservative Law and Justice Party (PiS), has repeatedly used his power to pardon PiS politicians who have been convicted of offences such as abuse of office. Or to block laws passed by the new government by refusing to sign them or referring them to the Constitutional Tribunal for review, which is still dominated by PiS loyalists and therefore does not act independently. The governing coalition is not strong enough in parliament to override a presidential veto, which is why numerous election promises have not been fulfilled, such as the reform of the judiciary following its restructuring by the PiS government and the liberalisation of the abortion law. Prime Minister Donald Tusk is now pinning his hopes on his candidate Rafał Trzaskowski to overcome the legislative deadlock – even though there are differing positions within the coalition on individual projects.

Who is standing for election?

As Duda cannot be re-elected under the constitution, 13 candidates are running to succeed him. Originally, 44 people announced their candidacy, but only 17 collected the required 100,000 signatures of support. Four were rejected by the election commission. A victory in the first round on 18 May is considered unlikely, with a run-off scheduled for 1 June.

Although there are 13 candidates – including some from the far right and loyal to Moscow – the election campaign is essentially focused on five personalities:

• Rafał Trzaskowski (liberal-conservative Civic Coalition, Koalicja Obywatelska (KO)): Doctor of Political Science, former Member of the European Parliament and Mayor of Warsaw since 2018. In 2020, he narrowly lost to Duda in the run-off election with 48.97 per cent of the vote.
• Karol Nawrocki (supported by the national-conservative Law and Justice Party, PiS): Head of the Institute of National Remembrance, which deals with Nazi and communist crimes; no previous political experience. He is presented by the PiS as a ‘citizen candidate’.
• Sławomir Mentzen (Confederation, Konfederacja, uniting monarchists, economic libertarians and right-wing extremists): Doctor of Economics and entrepreneur who runs several tax advisory firms and a brewery. Member of the Sejm (lower house of the Polish parliament). Spreads right-wing libertarian and ultra-conservative views via his own channels. He was recently convicted in court for making false statements about the Speaker of Parliament.
• Szymon Hołownia (Christian centrist party Third Way, Trzecia Droga): former television presenter and journalist, Speaker of Parliament since 2023. He ran for election in 2020 and came third.
• Magdalena Biejat (New Left, Nowa Lewica): Vice-President of the Senate, Spanish translator and activist. She campaigns for social justice and the protection of minorities and mobilises a progressive segment of the electorate.

In polls, Trzaskowski is in the lead with around 33 per cent, followed by Nawrocki (23 per cent) and Mentzen (12 per cent). A close race for a place in the run-off is shaping up.

An emotional election campaign

Polish society is deeply divided. Controversial issues such as abortion rights, migration, slow judicial reform and the political reckoning with the PiS's time in office have dominated the election campaign. There is a deep social divide, particularly between the PiS and Donald Tusk's Civic Coalition (KO). Although the majority wants an end to the gruelling ongoing dispute, this is not foreseeable.

The election campaign was marked by scandals and symbolic politics. It emerged that PiS candidate Nawrocki had published a book under the pseudonym Tadeusz Batyr and, disguised as this character, had praised the works of Karol Nawrocki on state television. In addition, links to criminals and dubious real estate deals were made public.

Trzaskowski, on the other hand, is considered part of the metropolitan elite, but made an effort to win over voters in rural areas, where more than half of the population lives. However, he had difficulty gaining traction there. With a clear shift to the right, for example by taking a tougher stance on migration and social benefits for Ukrainians living in Poland, he tried to win votes from the confederation camp – but risked losing progressive voters in the process.

Mentzen avoids traditional media and spreads his ultra-conservative and market-liberal views primarily via social networks – his TikTok channel has 1.6 million followers. In his opinion, for example, abortion should be banned even in cases of rape, and the state should no longer subsidise higher education.

There were several, sometimes bizarre, television debates in which the Third Way candidate, former television presenter Szymon Hołownia, was able to make his mark, particularly through his confident responses to attacks. Like Mentzen, he wants to break the political duopoly of PiS and KO. With 1.3 million followers on TikTok, Hołownia has the second-largest digital following.

Focus on security

There is agreement on the target of five per cent of GDP for defence spending. However, there are differences in how this should be achieved: PiS and Nawrocki continue to rely on US support and are sceptical about European initiatives. Mentzen rejects any military intervention, even in support of Ukraine, and instead of expanding the defence structures of the EU or NATO, he calls for the right to bear arms based on the Texas model. The Civic Platform and its candidate Trzaskowski, on the other hand, are in favour of closer cooperation with European partners in defence, particularly because of Trump's unpredictability. Hołownia also calls for European coordination on arms purchases and a holistic concept of security that includes healthcare and migration policy.

Symbolic politics and polarisation

Apart from the issue of security, the election campaign often remained vague in terms of content. Instead, symbolic gestures dominated. Magdalena Biejat caused a stir when, during a television debate, she removed a rainbow flag from Trzaskowski's lectern with the words ‘I am not ashamed.’ Karol Nawrocki had provocatively placed the flag there to ‘brand’ Trzaskowski as a queer-friendly politician. However, with the left-wing camp fragmented and fielding three candidates, Biejat is not expected to achieve a double-digit result.

A decision with far-reaching consequences

Following the change of government in 2023, Poland has embarked on a democratic course and is seen as a beacon of hope in a divided Europe. The outcome of the election will have a decisive influence on the government's ability to act: a victory for Trzaskowski could pave the way for reforms, while a victory for Nawrocki could lead to a blockade – with the risk of a government crisis and possible new elections.

This article was first published on boell.de. Translated with Deepl.